A review of the current state of process-based and data-driven modelling: guidelines for Lake Erie managers and watershed modellers

Elevated phosphorus (P) loading from the watersheds draining into Lake Erie, particularly agricultural (53%) and urban (43%) sources, is identified as one of main drivers severe eutrophication. In this study, we present a comprehensive evaluation 11 process-based models to characterize water cycle well nutrient fate transport within watershed context, find robust replicable way optimize modelling strategy for Erie watershed. Our primary objective review conceptual/technical strengths weaknesses individual reproducing surface runoff, groundwater, sediment transport, cycling, channel routing, collectively guide management Basin. analysis suggested that available either opted simpler approximations multifaceted, nonlinear dynamics instead placed more emphasis on advanced representation or, introduced greater degree biogeochemical complexity but simplified their strategies recreate roles critical hydrological processes. Notwithstanding its overparameterization problem, MIKE SHE model provides most 3D interplay between subsurface processes with fully dynamic description, whereby can solute infiltrates unsaturated soil layer subsequently percolates saturated layer. Likewise, physically based submodels designed represent detachment erosion/removal (DWSM, HBV-INCA, HSPF, HYPE, SHE), offer distinct alternative USLE-type empirical strategies. The ability explicitly simulate daily plant growth (SWAT APEX) coupled P be when evaluating long-term responses various Drawing parallels (sub)surface erosion processes, complicated approach, e.g., wave provided by (coupled URBAN or HYDRO) SWMM may appropriate realistically simulating pressurized flow backwater effects routing in both open channels closed pipes. While our propositions seem favor consideration complex lack commensurate knowledge properly underlying contend issue counterbalanced joint under an ensemble framework, which constrain plausible values validate macroscale patterns. Finally, study discusses facets work such role legacy P, challenges spring-freshet event-flow conditions, characterization water/nutrient cycles nonstationarity changing climate.